The Game Awards 2025 lineup is finally here — and it’s not just stacked, it’s chaotic, competitive, unpredictable, and arguably the strongest roster the show has ever seen. The overall theme this year is simple: even the “favorites” come with real weaknesses, and the games sitting lower on the odds ladder still have moments bold enough to steal the conversation.
Game of the Year Nominees (GOTY 2025)
Below are the GOTY 2025 nominees, with the stated win probabilities, why each one made the cut, a signature gameplay moment that defined it, and the honest weakness that could cost it the top prize.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 — 38% chance to win
Why it was nominated: A surprise breakout hit from a debut French studio. It didn’t enter the year as the “obvious” heavyweight, but it earned that position by being distinctive and ambitious enough to stand out in a crowded field.
Strongest gameplay moment: The first encounter with the “Painted Wraiths.” Time freezes mid-attack, and players must rotate the camera to dodge paint-strokes suspended in the air — a moment that made everyone go: “Okay, this game is doing something completely new.”
Major weakness (honesty factor): Some pacing issues in the middle chapters and difficulty spikes that feel artificially punishing. That kind of mid-game drag can matter in awards voting, because it’s the part of the experience most likely to linger as friction rather than wonder.
- Win probability: 38%
Hades II — 25% chance to win
Why it was nominated: Supergiant managed the impossible: taking a beloved 10/10 roguelike and making every system sharper, richer, and more expressive. Sequels can be safe and incremental; this one is framed as refinement with purpose, not repetition.
Strongest gameplay moment: The first transformation sequence when Melinoë unlocks her full Witch Mode — every streamer screamed, every player clipped it. It’s the kind of “I have to show someone this” sequence that can power a nomination into serious momentum.
Major weakness: Because it's a roguelike sequel, some voters may feel it “plays it safe,” even if it’s mechanically perfect. That perception can be costly in a year where boldness and novelty are getting a lot of attention.
- Win probability: 25%
Death Stranding 2: On the Beach — 17% chance to win
Why it was nominated: Kojima delivered the most cinematic game of the year — weird, atmospheric, polarizing, but undeniably bold. It’s positioned as the kind of swing that demands attention even from people who don’t fully agree on what it is.
Strongest gameplay moment: The first “shoreline collapse” sequence where the ocean literally folds inward, creating a physics-bending wave Sam has to outrun. It’s spectacle with an identity — the kind of set piece people remember long after the credits.
Major weakness: The pacing. Critics will praise its ambition, but its divisiveness hurts its top-spot chances. In awards terms, “everyone respects it” is not always the same as “enough people love it most.”
- Win probability: 17%
Hollow Knight: Silksong — 10% chance to win
Why it was nominated: It finally arrived — and somehow, it lived up to years of impossible hype. That alone would have been noteworthy, but the nomination implies it also delivered the quality needed to justify the long wait.
Strongest gameplay moment: The first boss in the Glass Temples — a multi-phase aerial duel that forces players to re-learn air movement entirely. It’s a defining “okay, this is different now” check that reshapes how you approach the game.
Major weakness: The difficulty curve is brutal, even for franchise veterans. Beloved and critically adored, but GOTY voters typically avoid extremely punishing titles — not because they’re “worse,” but because they can be less broadly embraced.
- Win probability: 10%
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II — 7% chance to win
Why it was nominated: Historically grounded RPGs rarely feel this immersive. The nomination reads like a reward for committing to a specific kind of realism and letting that realism drive the experience rather than sanding it down for speed.
Strongest gameplay moment: The nighttime siege mission where torches go out mid-battle, forcing players to fight blind with sound cues. It’s a mission concept built around vulnerability and sensory tension, not just bigger explosions.
Major weakness: Its realism can work against it — slower progression and steep systems turn off casual players. In a stacked year, that kind of barrier can limit how many voters feel comfortable calling it their top pick.
- Win probability: 7%
Donkey Kong Bananza — 3% chance to win
Why it was nominated: Nintendo magic. Sometimes a game makes the list because it’s simply the most joyful, polished version of what it is — and the nomination signals it hit that mark.
Strongest gameplay moment: The vine-slingshot jungle chase — a rollercoaster of chaos that perfectly captures Nintendo’s ability to blend fun + spectacle.
Major weakness: It’s brilliant, but it’s still a family platformer in a year full of narrative giants. When voters are torn between “the most fun” and “the most monumental,” family platformers often struggle to take the crown.
- Win probability: 3%
Game Award 2025: Best Narrative Nominees
The narrative race in 2025 reflects the same bigger story as GOTY: new ideas versus heavyweight sequels, and bold storytelling versus pacing and accessibility. Here are the nominees and why each one has a credible path to the win.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
A fresh IP with ambition: it combines emotional storytelling with gameplay that pushes you to care about every decision. Its mix of atmosphere, pacing, and narrative weight — especially in a year crowded with big sequels — gives it a distinctive edge.
Why it could win: It feels like a “whole package” — strong story, memorable characters, and a sense of stakes that many games this year tried to replicate.
Death Stranding 2: On the Beach
As a sequel to a narrative-driven original, expectations are high. If it delivers on emotional beats and philosophical depth (as the first did), its narrative weight and ambition make it a wild card.
Why it might pull through: For players who value bold, auteur-driven storytelling and a continuation of the original’s themes.
Ghost of Yōtei
A relative dark horse — coming from a studio known for action, this could surprise by leaning into storytelling in an unexpected way.
What This Lineup Says About GOTY 2025
The clearest takeaway is that 2025 doesn’t have a single “default” winner. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 leads the odds with a 38% chance, but even it carries pacing and difficulty concerns. Hades II sits close enough at 25% to capitalize if voters reward refinement and system excellence. Death Stranding 2 remains the bold, polarizing contender at 17%, while Silksong and Kingdom Come: Deliverance II are beloved but challenging in ways that can narrow their awards ceiling. And Donkey Kong Bananza, at 3%, is the reminder that Nintendo’s best moments can still earn top-tier recognition even in a year dominated by heavier narratives.
In other words: the 2025 race feels less like a straight line and more like a bracket. The moment-to-moment highlights are strong enough across the board that the final results could easily reflect what the voters value most — novelty, refinement, cinematic ambition, pure challenge, immersive realism, or just timeless fun.
